Late November OUTSIDE Down Day DID matter after all.....NDX non- confirmation.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 12/16/2014

Whilst the Outside Down Day late November DID NOT mark the absolute High for the S&P500 (& OEX100); the non- confirmation in the High Beta NDX100 failing to score a New High WAS indeed the SIGN that this Rally was terminating & at risk of some corrective price action.
THAT GAP @ 1905 has always been our worry as it's most unusual for the S&P500 (not so the NDX100).
The NDX100 has 2 trailing GAPs of its own; one of which has now been closed.

Key Reversal Days in the OEX, SPX, NYSE......does it matter?

OEX Daily Chart @ Close Tuesday 11/25/2014

Key Reversals in the OEX & S&P500; NYSE follows with an Outside Down Day of its own as the 'Hindenburg' monetary dock gets complicated amid contradictory economic stats & commodity prices @ the edge of, if NOT already over; the proverbial cliff.
For whom the bell tolls.......now?

NYSE still shy Record Highs as the Rally slows amid further QE.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close Friday 11/21/2014

Same story; further into the Rally from mid- October.
Bad News prompts Central Bank reaction with 'Good News' in more QE & ZIRP policies.
Hindenburg analogies are becoming common as the CB's try to 'dock' respective economies into recovery mode amid a global glut of excess EVERYTHING.
Deflation is only a 'dirty' word if your indebted.......oh well.

NYSE still not cooperating with NO New High sighted..............

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 11/07/2014

ECB QE; BoJ expanded QE; Bad News is Good News......the S&P500 may be scaling new heights along with the DOW; but so did Humpty Dumpty.
Surreal markets in Wonderland?
All that's missing is Alice & Mimzy.

Transports puts in an OUTSIDE DOWN KEY REVERSAL Day @ New Highs.

$TRAN Daily Chart @ Close 10/29/2014

Whilst the Dow Transports scores a new Record High; the Industrial Average remains a couple of percent shy of its.
The Outside Down Day for the Trannies commands respect as this index has been a reliable coincident indicator for the 2011- 14 Rally.
Previous such Days (Outside Down) have been both prescient & rewarding for those willing to follow their 'signal'.
Same again this time?

NYSE rallies back to circa 38% retrace............

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 10/20/2014

Thus far the Counter- Rally has nearly retraced 38% of losses since the early September High.
Any signs of Indecision here to be noted; though NOT favored as a more formidable 62% retrace the likely 'path' before we witness just what exactly this Correction has install for us.
A cursory & timely glance back to a late 2007- early 2008 Weekly Chart for the S&P500 would be time well spent.

Correction rolls on in short- order.......

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/13/2014

Attempts to mount an assault back to the recent Highs has failed; Support now critical @ 3760+/- for the High Beta NASDAQ100 Index.
Perhaps the whole 'blow- off' Rally since the 3414 Lows needs a healthy yet 'scary' retrace in its entirety before the dust settles on exactly 'where we are' at?

Benchmark S&P500 marks a Short- Term low.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 10/03/2014

Whilst the Small Caps & Russell have breached early August lows; the Large Cap Benchmarks have maintained their collective composure by staying above theirs.
Thursday's Long- Tail Indecisive Candle Stick leaves the S&P500 in good position to mount an assault on the 2019 High.

Outside Up Day for the NYSE: not so the Small Caps & Russell 2000.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 09/24/2014

As one of the trio of sub- indices that have clearly under performed the headline S&P500/ DOW scoring record highs; the NYSE has put in a Bullish Daily Chart pattern with a Bullish Engulfing Outside Up Day.
The Small Caps (S&P600) & Russell 2000 NOT so; so the 'jury' remains 'out' amid this churning corrective price action 'below' the frothy Head- Line #'s.

Are the Headlines accurate: NYSE would suggest not?

NYSE: Daily Chart @ Close 09/19/2014

Whilst the headline grabbing DOW & S&P500 score new record highs; the more relevant NYSE/ SML indices are failing to match such results.
Friday's Outside Down Day lends itself to another period of 'indigestion' for the broader market & perhaps the DOW/ S&P500 duo?

Daily Reversals: Do they matter in this Liquidity Rally?

S&P100 ($OEX) Daily Chart @ Close 09/08/2014

This aged Rally has been punctuated by Daily Reversals; some have mattered (early April) & some not (late June).
Will the one witnessed last Thursday?
Time will tell.

Big Cap Rally @ New Record Highs; why NOT the Russell 2000 et al......?

Russell 2000 ($RUT) Daily Chart @ Close 08/25/2014

The headline grabbing DOW & S&P500 may be leading the 'charge' higher on Central Bank 'largesse' globally; a peek below the 'hood' of THAT which employs more people than the Big Cap stocks........and it's NOT so bright a story.
Losses since July yet to be retraced beyond 62% & THAT leaves the health/ sustainability of the S&P500's advance rather questionable?

Friday's Outside Down Day IGNORED globally; it would seem.................

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 08/19/2014

An 'ouch' @ above 1965 on the 1945/55 Short Trade Stop/ Loss being triggered.
That said; a cursory glance of the chart should notice that previous 'false' signals on this seemingly 'never ending' rally have eventually been retraced (& then some most recently after the mid- July 'signal').
So; the moral would appear to be to NOT be tempted to re- engage the Long side until another opportunity affords itself below 1940?

A 'by the book' Correction so far for the S&P500.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close Friday August 15.

So far so good for the Corrective Price Action; the initial Shorts circa 1970 now reset @ 1955 post the 1905 Profit/ take.
Friday's OUTSIDE Down Day in not only the S&P500; but many another index says the downside again should be under pressure come next weeks trade.

Murder on the Orient Express................DAX the culprit!

German DAX: Daily Chart @ Close 08/01/2014

The 1st clue is usually the most important yet quickly forgotten or overlooked.
Germany's DAX scored that 'pesky' Outside Down Day fully 6 Friday's ago (see chart highlight); NEVER to be breached.
That KEY REVERSAL Day was indeed the 1st Clue in the Market Mystery Thriller for fingering the 'killer' of the seemingly never ending 2014 Rally.
Where the DAX goes; can global indices be far behind?

NDX100 & OEX100 both score OUTSIDE Down days: as does the DJIA

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 07/15/2014

Notable Reversal: OUTSIDE DOWN Days for the Big Cap Indices, DJIA/ NDX100 & S&P100.
Will it matter?
If it does; then the retrace levels for the NDX100 are highlighted in the chart.

Intraday Record Highs for the Dow Industrials; not so for the NYSE.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 07/14/2014

No new highs for the NYSE; earnings season upon the market & summer trade likely to result in further 'churn'....all amid Central Bank discourse on how the post- liquidity party 'hangover' is to be negotiated?
Fried food usually works well; how about 'fried' stocks?

S&P500: Momentum trumping any Technical Signals?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 07/03/2014

No stopping the momentum of the Benchmark S&P500?
Central Bank assurances about 'lower for longer' interest rate settings keeps the Longs 'snug'; the Bears 'patient' & the Neutrals 'frustrated'.
Until a Clear Reversal basis: Weekly Chart is witnessed; the sidelines remains the safest place to be as Summer unfolds & liquidity thins.

NYSE: Key Reversal as New Highs scored & then........................

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 06/24/2014

OUTSIDE DOWN KEY REVERSAL Day does have previous form in March & April with further 2% losses to follow.
Whether THIS signals that 'something more sinister' & meaningful; only time will tell.

S&P500: Upwards & Onwards OR something more sinister?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 06/17/2014

3 days Down & now 3 Days Up but still well shy (50% retrace) of the Record Highs from a Short- Term Tactical Trading perspective: so what's it going to be?
By Friday's Close we should know.

A search for Yield or sheer folly?

JPM EMBI ETF: Daily Chart @ Close 06/02/2014

In a world devoid of Inflation & Yield amid Zero Interest Rate policies; the Emerging Market 'space' is being 'mined' in that search for Yield & ROE.
Smart Move or Sheer Folly?

Small Caps still 'non compliant' with the S&P500 record run........

Small Caps Daily Chart @ Close 05/23/2014

Still no confirmation by the S&P600 Small Caps Index together with the NASDAQ Indices & Financials ($BKX) as the Benchmark S&P500 scores a New Record.
Should we worry?

Small Caps (S&P600) are nowhere near their Highs?

S&P600 Daily Chart @ Close 05/13/2014

Similarly to the Russell2000 & NASDAQ Indices; the New Highs in the S&P500 & Dow Jones Industrials are NOT being matched.
Caveat Emptor as the Rally 'narrows'?

S&P500 @ New Record Highs..........

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 05/13/2014

New Highs abound for the headline DOW & S&P500; & yet............

Close Encounters of the $ Kind..............

USDollar Index (Weekly) @ Close 05/06/2014

79.00+/- Support gets a serious testing Tuesday as the Dollar Bulls must be fretting/ sweating on the potential notion of a rare Head & Shoulders formation breaking down through 79......implications to 73.

NDX100: Another Test of 3615/25 & another Failure?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 05/02/2014

The 1st failure (3613) rewarded the skeptics with a rather 'fast' 3%+ profit on the sub 3500 move intra- week; will this encounter @ 3616 do the same?
RSI @ mid- levels & the MACD below the Zero line has them nicely positioned Short- Term.

NDX100 fails right where it was supposed to; if you're a Bear.

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 04/25/2014

3615/25 defined the 'Danger Zone' for the Over- Sold Rally from 3414.
The 3613 High temptingly close enough for the fleet of foot Tactically minded types to 're- load' the Short Trade on a 'what- if' basis should the Biotech 'bubble' be indeed so?
Time will tell.

Signs of a LOW; or just a significant pause?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 04/15/2014

It would appear that the recent Biotechnology 'carnage' may well have run its course.
The series of Daily Chart patterns in the NDX100 is likely signalling that 'enough is enough' & some respite/ retrace is now to be expected.
3615/25 becomes Resistance & 'Re-Load' level to monitor.

So much for New Highs!

Small Caps ($SML) Daily Chart @ Close 04/08/2014

Ongoing Biotechnology 'carnage' simply too much for the broader market to ignore.
Small Caps NEVER confirmed the New Highs in the benchmark 500 early April; that too a warning sign.
Now what?
Further weakness possible as many an Inside Day scored Tuesday & that does NOT usually mark a 'turn' in direction.

New Closing High for the S&P500

S&P500 Daily Close @ 04/01/2014

Recent Biotechnology 'carnage' may well have been simply a 'pause to refresh' for the Benchmark S&P500?
If so then significant new highs may be the case....1900+.
Who wouldda thought?

NDX100 suffers as the Bio- Tech Sector comes 'unglued'.

$BTK Daily Chart @ Close 03/24/2014

Large losses continue for the BioTech Sector: that impacting the NDX100 as well.
Should we care?
Depends; especially of you've been along for the 'ride' of 200% enjoyed over the last 2 years or so?

COPPER leads the 'dance' lower; will 'they' follow?

COPPER Daily Chart @ Close 03/12/2014

Copper has done what it inevitably was going to 'do'; break below $2.99.
Ideally it stays below $3.03 before setting new lows for this move. Longer Term; Long Term Averages are there to be 'plumbed' as 'there's nothing ever new under the sun' returns in style; even though NOT for the Commodity Exporters!
Above $3.11 negates the 'bearish' spin witnessed so far.

Highs 'form' & take time; this potential one no different?

GE/ S&P500 Comparison: Weekly Charts @ Close 02/28/14

Where goes the US Economy; GE is never far behind.
Or is the opposite true?
Time will tell as GE 'fail's to confirm the new highs in the benchmark.

Small Caps only back to the 50day SMA.....no new highs yet.

Small Caps ($SML) Daily Chart @ Close 02/12/2014

Even though the High Beta NDX100 has scored a new high on this reaction rally; the Small Caps has lagged appreciably.
A cautionary tale or simply the new norm as 2014 unfolds in uncharted territory?

Storm in a Teacup?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 02/07/2014

Sweet & Simple: Overhead Resistance @ both the 50day SMA + 61.8% retracement of losses circa 1808/09 defines another run @ the 1850 High. Failure below & the 1738 lows are @ risk.

NDX100 Tactical LONG Trade: was always the intra- day stance after last week's carnage.

NDX100 Hourly Chart @ Close 01/30/2014

As per last week's THE WEEKLY: the Tactical posture going into this week was looking for an intra- day BUY signal on the NDX100.
That opportunity afforded itself in the last hour Wednesday with a Clear Indecisive Hourly Pattern coincident with a Daily Chart exhibiting similar characteristics.
The result: a rewarding 1.86% gain Thursday basis Close/ Close.

S&P500 correction unfolds; can't say we were not warned?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 01/24/2014

A whole raft of indicators including the McClellan Oscillator (NASDAQ) & ongoing Negative Divergences have been the 'sirens' over the last 6 weeks or so.
The notable expansion in Volume with a lack of gains in 2014 YTD should have been heeded by us all.
The KISS approach here would be to expect the overdue 10% correction to test/ break the trailing 200day SMA circa 1700; no?

Small Caps lagged the Year- End festivities.......

S&P600: Small Caps Daily Chart @ Close 01/13/2014

As the Year- End "we own them as well' crowd 'window dressed' their portfolios; the Small Caps were always lagging.
That should have been warning enough that the January 'hangover' was likely especially given the 1st day's trade of 2014 being a Negative one!
The 50day SMA has provided immediate Support thus far; beyond that & matters become interesting as IT (50day) has been the trigger point for the Rally to reinvent itself since June 2013.

2013 'DELUSION' ends; 2014 opens with a tumble......Crude leads

CRUDE OIL ($WTIC): Daily Chart @ Close 01/02/2014

"Crude’s 2^nd Rally the ‘right stuff’ as a fast 5%+ gain (depends on one’s entry point) comes & goes in a matter of hours. What now? 3mth $88 Puts as the easy $ have been ‘booked’ & the ‘bottom- drawer’ 2014 lottery ticket purchased."         THE WEEKLY 12/06/2013

Medium Term View remains the same: a 'spill' in CRUDE all the way into the mid $70's Q1 2014.