Small Caps not invited to the 'Window Dressing' just yet?

$SML Daily Chart @ Close 12/20/2013

Santa arrives sans his 'little helpers' as the BIG Caps all post New Highs; not so the smaller types that usually lead not only the sleigh but also the rally?

Small Caps 'failed' against the late- November High.........

S&P600: Small Caps Daily Chart @ Close 12/11/12

Wednesday's close @ just above the 50day SMA after a failure to take out November's High print @ 659.36 portends 'poorly' for the broader market.
Santa's helpers better arrive soon & get the 'festival' rally underway soon or else the Grinch could steal the holiday spirit & 2014 may well be an unlucky '14' one???

S&P500 holds @ 1780 Support; another run @ the Highs?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 12/04/2013

As per THE WEEKLY; Support @ 1780 has held the selling in check (for the moment); coincident with a rather nice Candle Stick Daily formation.
Another run into new high ground above 1813.55 now the 'risk'.
NFP's this Friday of course the likely 'fly in the ointment' for any Short- Term Tactical trades.

NDX100 Correction: patience of just plain stubborn?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/22/2013

Ongoing Negative Divergence lends itself to caution if not outright Bearishness for the NDX100.
Previous instances have proven to signal the onset of sharp corrective moves lower in both June & October.
Same again this time or just wishful bearish thinking?

'Holy schizophrenia' Batman! QE to destroy Gotham?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/18/2013

Constant 'warnings' that this Rally may be terminal abound; when exactly QE 'FOREVER" goes from being the 'stable' prognosis to 'CRITICAL' now just a matter of time?

SMALL CAPS showing due respect to the Technical set-up...lower

Small Caps Index @ Close 11/07/2013

Unlike the narrowly 'owned' Dow Industrials; the more representative Small Caps (S&P600) & the NYSE Index for that matter, have failed to score new highs & remain firmly under the influence of the Negative Technical Set- Up witnessed last week.
Friday's Non- Farm Payrolls sets the scene for a Short- Term 'respite' or further follow through lower....one which may well accelerate as QE goes on forever & a day yet fails to garner any additional 'followers'?

Should CRUDE 'spill'.......$72/ $73 Medium- Term Target.

$WTIC Weekly Chart @ Close 10/30/2013

Filed under: 'What if?'
Should the $95.50/ 96.00 ledge fail; follow thru lower into the Major Support circa $90.60 looms large.
THAT fails & it could be as simple as A/B/C........$115/ 75 = $112/ 72?
(Round #'s keeping it simple for us all.)

McClellan Oscillator joins the fray.......lower

NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator @ Close 10/30/2103

The Oscillator now back below Zero; the recent Highs in the 'high beta' NDX100/ NASDAQ......NEVER confirmed by the Oscillator & as such the warning that this rally was becoming 'terminal'.
As always; follow through lower is the 'proof' that the warning has been correct.

Patience rewarded? Outside Down Day for the broad market.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 10/30/2103

The somewhat early; yet likely to be prescient warning 6 trading days ago (see earlier posts) now coming into play as the indices give up their gains & come back to the 'scene of the crime'.
Another 6 months of QE NOT quite the antidote to a slowing global economy & continuing unease over all things Sino; a gathering spy scandal in DC & logistic #'s that belie the 'recovery' thesis?
Let's see what happens next.

A pause only so far; patience always worth the wait.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Daily Chart @ Close 10/28/13

Whilst the lack of follow through lower has yet to be witnessed & other big cap indices have 'marched on' higher (albeit marginally); the Russell 2000 et al have 'stalled'.
Whether this stall succumbs to technical indications in that a correction of sorts is due; only time will tell.
Patience never goes out of fashion; yet is so rarely 'displayed'?

Follow up....follow through lower'?.............not yet

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/23/2013

Failure to follow through immediately lower leaves the 'door open' for a retest of the Highs scored Tuesday (across a # of indices).
The strong gains in the Transport Index @ +0.69% belies weakness elsewhere; perhaps a reaction to the gathering weakness in Crude $'s?
The NDX does have form in providing rather random Daily Chart patterns; the mid- July choppy & short- term 'adjustment' symptomatic of such & worthy of note for today's analysis.

NDX100 'confirms' the Small Caps 'hesitation': Outside Down Day

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/22/2013

An Outside Down day for the High Beta NDX100 would appear to be confirmation enough on the Small Caps 'Indecision' (see below)?
We think so; you?
And if so; then a pullback to its 50day SMA @ 3185 implies a 5% correction of its own.
Caveat Emptor now for the unsuspecting.

Small Caps 'Indecision' a RED Flag................

Small Cap Daily Chart @ Close 10/22/2013

An Indecisive Daily Chart by the leadership index should be warning enough to the Longs that perhaps another pause is upon us?
If so; then a neat 5% pullback to the Trend- Line & coincident 50day SMA @ 600 is to be expected.

NDX scores another New High......Divergences continue

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/15/2013

Both the NDX100 & Small Caps ($SML) are the indices to monitor.
New High for the HIGH BETA NDX100; the Negative Divergences evident on the Daily Chart & many a Stochastic Study the principal concern for those that 'care'.
Should we?

Small Caps lead the way still.................

$SML (S&P600) Daily Chart @ Close 10/14/2013

The correction back to the 50day SMA reversed 'on cue' and continues its 'leadership' role in NOT participating in the more meaningful pullbacks witnessed in the benchmark indices (S&P500/ DJIA/ DJT).
When the Small Caps give us the 'sign'; then we'll be more confident of a deeper correction of gains, scored even in lieu of constructive debate in DC over budgets & Obamacare.

Small Caps back to the 50day SMA

$SML Daily Chart @ Close 10/09/13

Small Caps 'migrate' back to the 50day Simple Moving Average (SMA); where we go from here the BIG Q?
A Daily Close below this & the 200day SMA remains a ways away @ 846...some 8% lower from today's close.

S&P Small Caps: "What correction!?"

S&P600 (Small Caps) Daily Chart @ Close 10/01/13

Whilst the Benchmark S&P500, together with the Dow Industrials & Transports have been in 'corrective' mode; the $SML & NASDAQ100 for that matter, have both surged to new highs.
Until a Clear Sign of a reversal is witnessed across ALL Indices; suggestions that a meaningful high is in place remains preemptive.

DOW INDUSTRIALS Lower after the re-balancing........

DJIA Weekly @ Close 09/30/2013

Coincident with Negative Divergences in other Indices & McClellan Oscillator confirmation; the DOW is in correction mode. The Small Caps however; managed a marginal new high last week and also scoring a marginal gain come Monday!

Dow Jones 'rebalancing' a sign of the times?

DJIA @ Close Friday 09/20/2013

In time to celebrate the 'new & old' changes to the DJIA; persistent Divergences (Negative) may well take hold on the Industrials.
If so; then a simple 38% retrace of the gains from late 2011 could well be the result.
That 'result' would witness a move back to the 2012 October High @ 13,661 & 38% of the gains since 2011...with the risk being a larger pullback to 12,471 (62%); the point @ which this potentially last leg of the 2 year old rally started from.
QE 'that'?

US $ Index 'lower'......"the 'catalyst' still a mystery".......NO MORE

USD INDEX @ Close 09/13/2013

Daily Chart for the US Dollar Index: What with Lawrence Summers 'withdrawal' from the selection process for Chair of the FED (WSJ nailed this story with report that 'Confirmation' was NOT going to happen for Larry); his 'opponent in Janet Yellen is now the 'mystery' solved reason for a GAP open lower Monday morning as her 2007 prescient 'Dovish' prognostications dominate.
As per THE WEEKLY: our 79/80 Target now looks likely.

BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX 'surges' as TEU's 'collapse'........

TEU $'S as at Friday 13th September 2013

For all the talk about higher stock prices in China & 'surging' Baltic Freight Rates (as production surges); the reality may be more complex & less ebullient that published?
Rates are DOWN 32.6% in the last 6 weeks on the Shanghai- Med Routes; for Northern Europe Rates have fallen by 35.6% & now some 20.7% lower year-on-year.

So much for the 'Indecision'...................Higher.

NYSE Daily Close @ 09/09/2013

The Indecisive Day Friday on NFP #'s release continues the 'pattern' of potentially misleading/ false/ useless Chart Patterns when the Payrolls Data is released.
Why?
Matters not; more importantly the ascent above the 50day SMA for many indices now suggests a run back to the May/ August twin peaks.
After that?

S&P500 @ the 50day SMA; Indecision abounds?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 09/06/2013

The true intent of global equities remains a mystery as QE 'tapering' gathers steam with 10yr US Note Yields closing out the week above the critical 2.85% level.
A resumption of losses in equities after Friday's wide ranging Indecisive Day would be of no surprise & could turn ugly quite quickly.
That said; the EM 'space' seems oblivious as Brazil scoots 7.48% higher on the week?

Dr Copper the 'canary in the coal mine'?

COPPER Weekly Chart @ Close 08/30/2013

Not only an OUTSIDE DOWN DAY mid- week; Copper puts in the same on a WEEKLY basis.
With many cross- currents buffeting global markets; Copper usually serves as the one that rarely 'lies'.
That said; then are the $2.99 lows @ risk with implications for ALL markets & the Global Economic Outlook?

NDX100 'PC' retest of the High fails with a poor Close Monday.

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 08/26/2013

Microsoft's 'assist' in testing the recent 100 Highs now appears to have 'failed' with an 'unch'ed' Close Monday.
Emerging Market risks coincident with weak US Data @ the margin does NOT seem like the right conditions for any notion of QE 'tapering'?
An overdue rally in US Treasuries is likely underway; equities not far behind & the US$ perhaps @ the mercy of the Gold 'faithful' for a change?

AUSSIE: An ominous development?

AUDUSD: Daily Chart @ Close 08/19/2013

Further to THE WEEKLY's Emerging Market/ Aussie 'Miracle' piece (08/16/2013); the AUDUSD has put in an 'ominous' Outside Down Day Monday as the regional Asian currency pressure grows (shades of 1996/97?).
The ongoing sell- off in Fixed Income markets globally; care of the FED's QE 'tapering' fears has led to the first of the 'unintended consequences'; a potential Emerging Markets Crisis.
If so; the Aussie may find itself @ the centre of a storm that tests its recent AAA/ Safe Haven Status, a reputation that some have been questioning for some time now (hands up!).

NASDAQ100 puts in an OUTSIDE DOWN WEEK.

NDX100 Weekly @ Close 08/16/2013

What with Apple's rally past $500 intra- week & yet the NASDAQ100 manages to post an Outside Down Week; allowing at least the beginnings of a Technical Sign that something of 'Corrective' substance may well have started?
Time will tell; but we have been potentially 'warned'.
The Negative Divergences evident on the Index should also be heeded for what they are as well; an ominous development.

AUSSIE Dollar now in 'retracement' mode?

AUDUSD Weekly Chart @ Close Aug. 9 2013

Too much to ask after the 89ct target was finally met that some retracement of losses is now in order?
The 'Bear' camp is now crowded & that nearly always spells time for a move in the other direction; especially so given the US Dollar Index developments?

The AUSSIE 'miracle' goes 'mirage' on us?

AUDUSD Monthly Chart @ Close August 2 2013

Should the simplistic 89ct target (*) 'fail' to garner a reaction; the 'gates to hell' will be opened as the 'box tickers' erase their holdings of the AAA Safe Haven G20 'darling' Sovereign Debt that now appears to be a fully 'qualified' Commodity Class Currency (CCC) & finally fulfill it's destiny....@ 0.35cts longer term?
Beyond 89cts; the 0.8000 level remains Major Support @ 38%/ 50% of the large legs up from 0.60 & 0.4850 respectively.
(*1.1080 begot 0.9380/ 1.0600 Triangle Apex begets 0.8900)

USD INDEX on the verge of Medium- Term SELL?

USD Index Weekly Close @ 07/26/2013

The OUTSIDE DOWN Week 2 weeks back has witnessed follow through lower & THAT is enough for us to signal that a likely Medium- Term SELL is warranted on the US Dollar Index.
What this means for other markets (equities/ commodities et al) is the BIG Question.

NYSE posts an OUTSIDE DOWN Day....should we care?

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 07/24/2013

OUTSIDE DOWN Day not to be 'sneezed' @ as the Trannies have already made their move?
Follow through (lower) into Friday's Close would go a long way in suggesting another period of consolidation/ correction is upon us again.

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS 'had enough' up here?

Dow Jones Transports Daily Chart @ Close 07/24/2013

Whilst the other indices 'meander' around the previous highs (EG: S&P500 @ 1687); the Trannies has seemingly made up 'its' mind & is heading lower after a marginal new high was scored.
Leadership or 'out on it's own'?

No new high still for the laggard DAX...............

German DAX Daily Chart @ Close 07/16/2013

Whilst the S&P500 has done its 'thing' in testing the 1687 Highs (1684); the DAX continues it under- performing ways.
The other High Beta Index: NDX100, has scored a marginal new high (so far); until the DAX does this rally has the hallmarks of a retest/ failure up here & NOT the beginnings of another new leg higher.
Time will tell.

Weekly DAX continues its 'weird' way in NOT confirming the S&P500's new found 'mojo'?

DAX Weekly Chart @ Close 07/08/2013

Still within the confines of the 50/200day SMAs (above the 200 & below the 50day... both NOT shown as this is a Weekly Chart); the DAX is yet to join in the S&P500's new found energy.
A bigger picture perspective is now timely; as yield 'reversion' to normal levels (& yield curve steepening) will ultimately affect Equity Valuations.
Patience as we revisit the 2013 Highs.

S&P500 in 'retest' mode of the 1687 Highs

S&P500 Daily Close @ 07/08/2013

Above the 50day SMA; the previously broken 'up- trend' line & most importantly the 61.8% retrace @ 1639.......a full blown assault on the 1687 High should be underway.
After that; success of otherwise gets interesting.
The German DAX (above) does NOT appear in quite the same ebullient mood as the S&P500?
It demands our attention as to where/ what lies ahead with normalizing yield curves globally affecting equity valuations in a more meaningful way.

S&P500 stubbornly below the 50day SMA

S&P500 @ Close 07/03/2013

The overhead 50 day Simple Moving Average @ 1625 has become the 'bugbear' for the benchmark index to get going & put in a serious retest of the highs.
Note the growing # of Indecisive Daily patterns just below.
Absent a 'scaling' of 1625 & more importantly the 61.8% retrace of losses @ 1638.70; then the index (& broader market) remains vulnerable to further losses.

S&P500 holds the 38% retrace then back to the 50day SMA.......

S&P500 Dail Close @ 06/27/2013

Simple 38% retrace of gains since Nov. 2012 leaves the Benchmark in a 'strong' position to mount another 'assault' on the Highs @ 1687.
The 50day SMA has halted THAT Advance thus far; a 50% retracement of the Losses to boot!
If 1687 proves to be a Medium- Term High; the process of forming it may take time & frustrate 'all & sundry' before the larger correction unfolds (think: < 1474).
Sentiment #'s have declined back to levels that support a 'closer encounter' with the 1687 High than we have witnessed to date?

S&P500: Where to now?

S&P500: Weekly Chart @ Close 06/21/2013

Whilst a Short- term 'bounce'/ respite could be in order; given Friday's High Volume (not shown) minor gain, the bigger picture now is biased for a meaningful retracement of the gains from 1074 back in 2011.
They are:
38% = 1454
50% = 1382
62% = 1310.
Time will tell as the QE Exit backs up through the 'Looking Glass' out of 'Wonderland'?

2013's Train Wreck?

Australian ACGB 10yr Note: Close @ 06/21/2013

THE WEEKLY 'elite' know this trade well:
The (100) PUTS on the 5.75% Series July 2022 on a quarterly buying program are now 'making their move'.
A cursory glance @ the 10 year Weekly Chart sees that the 'convergence' zone/ natural level for 10 year Govt. Bonds in OZ is at the 5.50% level.
Let's see if we get there soon as the QE Exit takes ALL before it?

62% retrace on the S&P500 keeps the Correction 'in play'.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 06/20/2013

The benchmark's failure to surmount the 1653 level (61.8%) retrace of the preliminary losses from 1687/ 1598 has kept the Tactical Bearish Trade alive.
Further potential losses now @ 1550 / 1475 should the market 'gods' wish.

DAX: Outside- UP Day Friday says another run @ the Highs.

DAX Daily Chart @ Close 06/07/2013

Whilst the US Indices have not been so pronounced in Signaling a potential run back to the Highs; the German DAX (& CAC40) have both 'said' as much.
S&P500 Resistance @ 1653 (61.8% retrace of the losses from 1687/ 1598) defines how close we 'go' in testing 1687.....or even New Highs to frustrate the recent Put Buying crowd?

NYSE Signal....so far so good...lower.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close June 5 2013

The Outside Down Day & Weekly Charts for the NYSE have indeed been prescient in their timing.
The NDX100 was along for the ride (in signalling); the benchmark S&P500 failing to give such clarity.
Further short- term weakness is possible; the immediate Support @ the 38% retrace of gains since Nov. 2012 fast approaching.

NYSE posts an OUTSIDE DOWN Week, not so the S&P500.

NYSE Weekly Close @ 05/24/2013

Just like the NASDAQ100 (NDX); the NYSE has posted an Outside Down Weekly chart pattern.
The benchmark S&P500 has NOT; should we care?
Additionally; the Philly Bank Index ($BKX) has only witnessed an 'Indecisive' Weekly pattern; not enough to 'hang on one's hat on'....yet.

Clear OUTSIDE DOWN (Wide Range) DAY for the S&P500......will it matter?

S&P500 Daily Close @ 05/22/2013

Nearly ALL sub- indices have witnessed the same Outside Down Day as the benchmark S&P500.
Only the Transports 'failed' in scoring a new high & reversing sharply.
Furthermore; GOLD took a peek above $1400...nearly fainted & is now vulnerable to another test of the $1300/20 'ledge'.

GOLD test of $1323 a 'success'.......so far.

Gold Daily Chart @ Close 05/20/2013

Outside Up Day with a successful test of the mid- April Low @ $1323 says Short- Term that a 'test' of the declining 50day SMA @ $1500 is now likely.
GOLD's problem has been that each & every time on this decline; the 50day has proved to be 'superb' Risk/ Reward location for the Shorts &/or Tactical Longs as an Exit Point.
Same again this time?

US 10yr Note: No Bear Market yet......Bull Flag perhaps?

US 10yr NOTE: Weekly Chart @ Close 05/17/2013

Yield Basis: Until the approximate 2.20% level is breached, absolutely NO sign of a reversal in fortune for US 10 year yields (lower) over the medium term.
That said; the 'true' marker for a longer term Bear Market in US 10 year interest rates remains @ the 62% retrace of the last leg down in yields: @ > 2.85%.
Only then can one have a high degree of confidence that the search for yield has run its course & a reversion to 'normalcy' is underway?

ASX200 Outside Down Day a portend post Budget?

ASX200 Daily Close @ 05/15/2013

A disconnect from the S&P500 would be the rational response as that which benefits the US (cheap energy) does not help the commodity exporters who seem to found themselves in a 'funk' as China fails to 'fill their sails' a la 2010/11?

Sightings: An NDX100 'high' or just another 'siren'?

NDX100 Daily Close 05/07/2013

Another 'siren' call or the makings of something both 'real' & certainly well overdue?
At the very least the GAP below @ 2916 needs a 'fill' sooner or later.
Below that & the 2660 fill still beckons 'medium term'.

NIKKEI 225: Perspective in the grand scheme of things

NIKKEI 225: Monthly Chart- 1988 to present.

From 'Boom' to 'Bust' & back to the future: 'Boom'?
After the successful demolition by Basle I on the Japanese economy (& Sweden's for that matter) in the 1980's; has Japan finally got it right with 'excess capital' back in the banking system & a pro-active fiscal/ monetary policy mix that may herald a return to the good old days?
If so; then there's plenty of room for further gains.

What now for BHP & the Commodity BOOM?

BHP Monthly Chart 

Like its brethren RIO & VALE; BHP fully reflects the market's view on the commodity 'boom'.
Is it 'bust'?
Below A$30 would be the 1st major sign that a 'bust' is underway; the MACD giving a Sell Signal whilst below the Zero Line implying that the post 2009 recovery has run its course & 'reality' beckons for the brave.