The ‘weekly’
A Monthly,
Quarterly & YEARLY
REVIEW &
ANALYSIS - January
5th 2012
OBSERV
ATIONS FROM 2011:
S&P500
Open/ Close @ 1257.64/ 1257.60........
·
S&P500: A near statistical ‘freak’ result with
the virtual unchanged close for the 500.
·
S&P500 Range for the year @ 1074.77 –
1370.58.....that’s nearly 300 points (24%).
·
S&P500 Skew @ 120pts (9.5%) ‘upside’ (from
the Open) v 180pts (14.5%) of ‘downside’.
·
S&P500 Time spent above the Open/ Close @ 8
½ months above v 3 ½ below.
MINDFUL
THOUGHTS FOR 2012: The Consensus and Non– Consensus
views.
·
Consensus: European Recession ‘likely’, China
‘lands’, BRICS continue to ‘underperform’, the US ‘muddles’ through with an
‘upward’ bias, the US Dollar stays firm, the Japanese Yen stays strong (now
they tells us!), the US treasury market is in ‘bubble’ territory, ‘someone’
exits the EMU (Euro), WTI stays above $80bbl, the Aussie miracle adjusts to
monetary easing, interest rates stay low globally, the earth continues to
‘warm, extreme weather becomes the ‘norm’, Iran goes ‘nuclear’, Syria has its
‘spring’, Russia has at the very least an interesting Presidential Election and
Obama gets re-elected.
·
Non: New Highs for the S&P500 (Doug Kass
‘sees it’), the Euro survives intact, China lands ‘perfectly’, the US Dollar
weakens sharply, the Yen finally reverses and trades back above Y100, the US
Economy suffers a ‘double dip’ (ECRI view), the Aussie miracle economy
‘crashes’ (think lower AUD, higher interest rates a la 1980’s), Brazil
‘crashes’, WTI ‘crashes’ (below $65), GOLD ‘collapses’ (back below $900), the
earth suffers a cold relapse, weather normalizes (think post-Katrina storm #’s),
Republicans ‘sweep’ in the elections.
·
All markets ‘correct’ via Price and/ or Time.
Time is deceptive and the ‘great healer’.
·
Major electoral cycles are playing out globally;
Russia, France, China & the US.
OUTLIERS
AND ‘ROGUE WAVES’:
·
China ‘crashes’, a la bad loans 1997 style,
social unrest, political uncertainty.
·
A major US bank fails.
·
Major FX crisis (Euro ‘fails’ ?), think SNB
‘stepping aside’ @ 1.20, JPY ‘surges’ to below Y65, US Dollar ‘block’
currencies all ‘crash’ ex-the US Dollar itself.....go figure?
·
New Lows are scored in the equity markets (below
S&P500 666).
(Page #1 from THE WEEKLY'S 2012 Yearly Edition.....a limited subscription only publication)
