NDX100: Where's the 'follow through'?

NDX100 Daily Chart: Close @ 01/30/12

The 'old college' try was attempted early on to get it lower, by the close the 100 finished in marginal positive territory.
The McClellan registered a 'solid' negative @ -23.29, belying the virtual unchanged for the NASDAQ Indices.
Patience; let's see what tomorrow brings.

NASDAQ100 - McClellan 'finally' kicking in?

Note the higher prices for the NDX100 are NOT matched by a consistent higher reading for the McClellan Oscillator (Lower Chart).
The Oscillator is a measure of the 'internal' strength of the index.

Virtually no change now for the McClellan. Friday's market action becomes interesting,as a negative close and potentially a 'flat' week for the NDX100 sets up for the correction so many have been calling for.

New highs for the NDX100, 'very accommodative'

NDX100 Daily Chart: Close 01/25/12

An accommodative FED thru late 2014,....what's not to like?
Again, the McClellan only posts a 'minor' 8pt gain even as the 100 puts on a lazy 1.30%.
How long this disconnect can be maintained is a function of the FED 'talking the talk', whilst the markets 'walk the walk'?

NDX100: Another day, another small range....

NDX100 Daily Chart: Close 01/24/12

McClellan gives another 'large move' signal as another small range day is witnessed.
Highs from Friday remain in place, but what with Apple's 'blow-out' #'s after the bell, we'll soon see if the chart pattern holds and the McClellan's warnings were/ are pertinent.

NDX100 Daily: Finally a 'sign' of a high?

NDX100 Daily: 01/23/12

An 'Indecisive' Candle pattern together with a McClellan reading that is quite negative (-13.58) for an 'unchanged' daily close...well the %'s dictate that a corrective move lower is now 'scheduled'. Let's see.

NDX100 Daily (from THE WEEKLY)

NDX100 Daily Chart: 01/20/12

"3 out of 4 days this week the McClellan Oscillator has registered incremental readings, not confirming the strength in the NDX100 ‘space’. Overt Semi-Conductor (SOX) strength has a lot to do with this and the narrowness of the advance in NDX stocks is a concern.

There is a ‘gap’ on the daily chart (see Green square) and that is coincident with the 50/200 ‘convergence’ zone. A pullback to that level (similar to the S&P) would not surprise at all."
(THE WEEKLY 01/20/12)

GOLD: (an excerpt from THE WEEKLY)

GOLD Daily Chart: 01/20/12

"Gold now sits at the junction of many ‘way’ points. The fast converging 50/200day SMA’s shall garner attention once we know which way they are heading, by the looks of it a ‘negative’ cross, no?" 

"Gold has managed to rally amid the EURO currency sell-off (USD rally) and now the relief rally in same (EUR), and still Gold rallies. Interestingly the EURCHF cross-rate has fallen back to just a safe distance (1.2080) above the Swiss National Bank’s ‘line in the sand’ @ 1.2000.

So perhaps Gold is not alone in telling us something about the state of affairs regarding the single-currency and its expected ‘half-life’?"  

EURCHF the canary in which 'coal-mine'?

EURCHF Weekly 'snapshot' 01/20/12

EUR/CHF has the 'floor' set @ 1.2000 by the SNB. Or so they (SNB) say.


If one takes a l@@k @ the extremely Long-Term chart, it looks 'incomplete'.


That means the 1.2000 gives way & sub-1.0000 is 'seen'.


What THAT means for everything else is  a function of one's imagination.

Keep watching this 'birdie'....NDX100

NDX100 Daily: Close 01/19/12 

Another 'up' day, yet another non-confirm by the McClellan @ only +0.79, suggesting again the potential for a major-move (>1%) in the NDX.


One could argue that the 'dis-connect' again suggests that the move will be lower. 


If one 'strips' out the SOX (up 6.5% for the week) from the NDX (up 2.94%), perhaps it shall be so.


No signs of a top in the SOX, however it rarely 'rings a bell' to warn of such.

NDX100 leads the charge higher........

NDX Daily: 01/18/12

"So much for the non-confirmation!"
Having said that, the NDX is quite a ways from the 50/200SMAs and the 'close @ highs' could be exhaustion.

If the rally is on a 'bigger fire truck' being ordered by the IMF, well then the fire must be bigger than thought, at least that's what the World Bank was saying, huh?

Look out the window and you'll see the BALTIC FREIGHT nearly @ impact, now @ 926, down from 1624 end of 2011. If that's bullish, blimey!

NDX100 up 0.90%...."not so fast, sport"

NDX Daily Close: 01/17/12

Higher Close @ +0.90% not confirmed by the McClellan Oscillator @ -0.25. Suggests a major move by week's end and bias is for that move to be lower.

If this ain't BIG news, I don't know what is.

The Australian banking system is one miss-step away from being viewed outside the prism of the rose-tinted glasses (some would say 'blind-folds') of the so called analysts.
CBA pays premium in bond issue | News | Business Spectator
Watch this SPACE closely.

Who said this was easy?

NYSE Daily Close: 01/17/12

Indecision @ the 200day SMA, no confirmation by other indices (R2000/ BKX) & stocks (GE/ JPM) does suggest potential for pullback is high and thus 'caveat emptor' is probably wise @ this level.

"Bifurcation" market

BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX: No signs of a Low.

Baltic Dry Index: Weekly Chart 01/13/12

S&P500 Weekly: (c/- THE WEEKLY 01/13/12)

(THE WEEKLY 01/13/12: #12)

THE WEEKLY (01/13/12) 'sampling': GOLD

(more in THE WEEKLY - by limited subscription only)

ASX200 DAILY Chart

ASX200 DAILY CHART: 011212

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

MACD: Rising/ still below Zero
RSI: Above 50 & rising
SMA's: 50day 'flat' and price action gravitating around it.
Pattern: Large Triangle suggests a break; one way or the other shall happen.(more on this in THE WEEKLY's next edition - 01/13/12)

NASDAQ100 Weekly Chart

NDX WEEKLY CHART: 01/11/12 

A Diamond? Distribution? 

We'll know soon enough.

NASDAQ100 (NDX100): THE High Beta 'risk seeking' index

The NASDAQ100 (NDX100) Daily Chart as @ 01/11/12

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

What's not to like?

MACD: Trending up

DMI/ADX: Ditto

Fast Stoch: Ignore @ O/B.

EMA's: Reflecting a rising (trending)            market.

What's 'not' to like?

The whole chart could, just could be construed as a 'Diamond' formation. They are about as rare as a true S/H/S formation (Head & Shoulders).

The 'rub'?; a Diamond is a distribution pattern that commands immense respect should we 'lose' these levels and start a fast descent. Let's keep an eye on it. 

Small Business & Mortgages share the same jobs creating DNA....FIX the latter and the micro-economy kick-starts again....finally

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/small_business/2012/01/small_businesses_in_the_economic_recovery_the_disproportionate_impact_of_the_credit_crunch.html

BALTIC DRY INDEX in 'virtual' freefall......what gives?

BALTIC DRY INDEX: Weekly Chart 01/10/2012

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• MACD signalling lower.
• RSI saying the same.

As the BALTIC approaches the lows set back in early 2011, what are we to make of the rally in equities and recent 'better than feared' economic data from China?

Perhaps equities have (yet again) got ahead of themselves, or is the BALTIC no longer the indicator it once was? 

THE WEEKLY : 2012 YEARLY Outlook (Sampling)

The ‘weekly’  

  A Monthly, Quarterly & YEARLY

            REVIEW & ANALYSIS                    - January 5^th 2012

OBSERV ATIONS FROM 2011:  S&P500 Open/ Close @ 1257.64/ 1257.60........

·         S&P500: A near statistical ‘freak’ result with the virtual unchanged close for the 500.

·         S&P500 Range for the year @ 1074.77 – 1370.58.....that’s nearly 300 points (24%).

·         S&P500 Skew @ 120pts (9.5%) ‘upside’ (from the Open) v 180pts (14.5%) of ‘downside’.

·         S&P500 Time spent above the Open/ Close @ 8 ½ months above v 3 ½ below.

MINDFUL THOUGHTS FOR 2012:               The Consensus and Non– Consensus views.

·         Consensus: European Recession ‘likely’, China ‘lands’, BRICS continue to ‘underperform’, the US ‘muddles’ through with an ‘upward’ bias, the US Dollar stays firm, the Japanese Yen stays strong (now they tells us!), the US treasury market is in ‘bubble’ territory, ‘someone’ exits the EMU (Euro), WTI stays above $80bbl, the Aussie miracle adjusts to monetary easing, interest rates stay low globally, the earth continues to ‘warm, extreme weather becomes the ‘norm’, Iran goes ‘nuclear’, Syria has its ‘spring’, Russia has at the very least an interesting Presidential Election and Obama gets re-elected.

·         Non: New Highs for the S&P500 (Doug Kass ‘sees it’), the Euro survives intact, China lands ‘perfectly’, the US Dollar weakens sharply, the Yen finally reverses and trades back above Y100, the US Economy suffers a ‘double dip’ (ECRI view), the Aussie miracle economy ‘crashes’ (think lower AUD, higher interest rates a la 1980’s), Brazil ‘crashes’, WTI ‘crashes’ (below $65), GOLD ‘collapses’ (back below $900), the earth suffers a cold relapse, weather normalizes (think post-Katrina storm #’s), Republicans ‘sweep’ in the elections.

·         All markets ‘correct’ via Price and/ or Time. Time is deceptive and the ‘great healer’.

·         Major electoral cycles are playing out globally; Russia, France, China & the US.

OUTLIERS AND ‘ROGUE WAVES’:

·         China ‘crashes’, a la bad loans 1997 style, social unrest, political uncertainty.

·         A major US bank fails.

·         Major FX crisis (Euro ‘fails’ ?), think SNB ‘stepping aside’ @ 1.20, JPY ‘surges’ to below Y65, US Dollar ‘block’ currencies all ‘crash’ ex-the US Dollar itself.....go figure?

·         New Lows are scored in the equity markets (below S&P500 666).

(Page #1 from THE WEEKLY'S 2012 Yearly Edition.....a limited subscription only publication)