Wednesday, January 11, 2017

WTI (Crude) following the script nicely; a 'Low & Last' Close Tuesday NY.

WTI Daily Chart @ Close 01/10/2017
After initially retracing > 61.8% of the losses from recent $55.24 Highs; Crude has respected the reliable MACD Sell Signal from the 1st Day of Trade in 2017.
Proxy Global Equity markets will likely be 'along for the ride' following their recent ebullient yet not so far well founded rallies.
It's NOT early 2016 all over again; BUT it is still only 6 Trading into the Month of January...........
Aggressive & Prudent Tactical types are likely Short from said 61.8% retrace @ $54.04 with Minimal Pain (Retrace High = $54.32) & now some +6% P/L for 3 Days work.
Interim Target looks like $49.50 with the more adventurous Shorts 'scouting' for some serious early Year scores circa $47 (+13%P/L!)

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Crude posts Wide- Range Daily Reversal; perhaps signaling Risk- On @ 'Risk'?

WTI Daily Chart @ Close 01/03/2017
Crude proved to be both pertinent & timely during the course of 2016 as an Indicator for Risk Assets.
If this is still so; then 2017 may well start out in similar fashion to 2016's conspicuous & rather volatile early miss- step.....or few? Notably the MACD was on Sell Signal before Tuesday's opening gambit for the year; subsequent Price Action certainly suggests it (MACD) may well be 'onto something?

Monday, December 19, 2016

DOW JONES Industrial Index (DJIA) signals 'time for some reflection'?

DJIA Daily Chart @ Close 12/16/2016
Wednesday Dec. 14, the DOW posts an Outside- Down Day as the FOMC signals 'all clear' into 2017/ 18 on FED Funds Rate rises. The Trump Rally may be in need of some 'reflection' as the Global Effects of Higher Interest Rates are felt across Asia (China) amid uncertain economic/ trade & geopolitical outlooks.
1994/95.....96/97....98 redux?

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Record Highs except for the NDX100; should we care?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/21/2016
Whilst many a sub- Index & the Benchmark S&P500 + Dow register Record Highs; the High Beta NDX100 not so....for now.
Whether it matters in the brave new world of Trumponomics another matter altogether as it's now all about Nominal GDP Growth with attendant Interest Rate/ Monetary Policy implications & EPS ramifications.
Wait & See approach into year- end may yet be the disciplined one?

Friday, November 4, 2016

NDX100 Correction: "Nothing appears without a sign...."

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/03/2016
A few weeks past; the NDX100 our 'lead' pony in a market seemingly bereft of signals? The "Outside- Down Key Reversal" WAS negated BUT left a contemporaneous Weekly Shadow that suggested 'vulnerability' best described Equity Markets pre- FOMC, US Elections......hell Facebook 'news' even (L/T 'Short = Our View).
Either way & the Correction is well & truly underway with 'our' 4650 Target (THE WEEKLY) firmly in sight ahead of the NFP's.
Should matters get 'unhinged' beyond that (4650); 4525 & 4450 are quite doable in the current environment.