Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Weekly DAX continues its 'weird' way in NOT confirming the S&P500's new found 'mojo'?

DAX Weekly Chart @ Close 07/08/2013
Still within the confines of the 50/200day SMAs (above the 200 & below the 50day... both NOT shown as this is a Weekly Chart); the DAX is yet to join in the S&P500's new found energy.
A bigger picture perspective is now timely; as yield 'reversion' to normal levels (& yield curve steepening) will ultimately affect Equity Valuations.
Patience as we revisit the 2013 Highs.

S&P500 in 'retest' mode of the 1687 Highs

S&P500 Daily Close @ 07/08/2013
Above the 50day SMA; the previously broken 'up- trend' line & most importantly the 61.8% retrace @ 1639.......a full blown assault on the 1687 High should be underway.
After that; success of otherwise gets interesting.
The German DAX (above) does NOT appear in quite the same ebullient mood as the S&P500?
It demands our attention as to where/ what lies ahead with normalizing yield curves globally affecting equity valuations in a more meaningful way.

Thursday, July 4, 2013

S&P500 stubbornly below the 50day SMA

S&P500 @ Close 07/03/2013
The overhead 50 day Simple Moving Average @ 1625 has become the 'bugbear' for the benchmark index to get going & put in a serious retest of the highs.
Note the growing # of Indecisive Daily patterns just below.
Absent a 'scaling' of 1625 & more importantly the 61.8% retrace of losses @ 1638.70; then the index (& broader market) remains vulnerable to further losses.

Friday, June 28, 2013

S&P500 holds the 38% retrace then back to the 50day SMA.......

S&P500 Dail Close @ 06/27/2013
Simple 38% retrace of gains since Nov. 2012 leaves the Benchmark in a 'strong' position to mount another 'assault' on the Highs @ 1687.
The 50day SMA has halted THAT Advance thus far; a 50% retracement of the Losses to boot!
If 1687 proves to be a Medium- Term High; the process of forming it may take time & frustrate 'all & sundry' before the larger correction unfolds (think: < 1474).
Sentiment #'s have declined back to levels that support a 'closer encounter' with the 1687 High than we have witnessed to date?

Monday, June 24, 2013

S&P500: Where to now?

S&P500: Weekly Chart @ Close 06/21/2013
Whilst a Short- term 'bounce'/ respite could be in order; given Friday's High Volume (not shown) minor gain, the bigger picture now is biased for a meaningful retracement of the gains from 1074 back in 2011.
They are:
38% = 1454
50% = 1382
62% = 1310.
Time will tell as the QE Exit backs up through the 'Looking Glass' out of 'Wonderland'?