DOW JONES Industrial Index (DJIA) signals 'time for some reflection'?

DJIA Daily Chart @ Close 12/16/2016

Wednesday Dec. 14, the DOW posts an Outside- Down Day as the FOMC signals 'all clear' into 2017/ 18 on FED Funds Rate rises. The Trump Rally may be in need of some 'reflection' as the Global Effects of Higher Interest Rates are felt across Asia (China) amid uncertain economic/ trade & geopolitical outlooks.
1994/95.....96/97....98 redux?

Record Highs except for the NDX100; should we care?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/21/2016

Whilst many a sub- Index & the Benchmark S&P500 + Dow register Record Highs; the High Beta NDX100 not so....for now.
Whether it matters in the brave new world of Trumponomics another matter altogether as it's now all about Nominal GDP Growth with attendant Interest Rate/ Monetary Policy implications & EPS ramifications.
Wait & See approach into year- end may yet be the disciplined one?

NDX100 Correction: "Nothing appears without a sign...."

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 11/03/2016

A few weeks past; the NDX100 our 'lead' pony in a market seemingly bereft of signals? The "Outside- Down Key Reversal" WAS negated BUT left a contemporaneous Weekly Shadow that suggested 'vulnerability' best described Equity Markets pre- FOMC, US Elections......hell Facebook 'news' even (L/T 'Short = Our View).
Either way & the Correction is well & truly underway with 'our' 4650 Target (THE WEEKLY) firmly in sight ahead of the NFP's.
Should matters get 'unhinged' beyond that (4650); 4525 & 4450 are quite doable in the current environment.

NDX100 Weekly Key Reversal; should we care?

NDX100 Weekly Chart @ Close 10/14/2016

Finally signs of 'Signs': NDX100 & not the only Index exhibiting 'Reversal' Price Action; the BKX; Emerging Markets (MSCI) & AAXJ (Asia ex- Japan) together with the Commodity dependent but policy lacking ASX200 (unlike the BOVESPA!).
Metals again under pressure & a $ 'surge' basis the 1.5% gain this past Week with the FED talking Arthur Burns type 'policy'!?
Let's not forget the US Bio- Tech 'Train Wreck' unfolding yet again.
Volatility next?

S&P500 Correction back to bottom of recent 'Time' Range.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 10/11/2016

The Reversal Week of 08/19 continues to 'haunt' US Equity markets; Tuesday's sell- off YET to probe the bottom of the range witnessed since 2193 Highs.
2115 Support (38%) keeps the Correction more 'Time Based' than Price (< 4% below 2193); a breach below 2115 & Major 2069 Support (62%) looms with THAT BREXIT GAP @ 2035 from late June in need of a Fill later if not sooner?

Benchmark S&P500 Correction 'rolls on' in Time......not Price?

S&P500 Weekly Chart @ Close 09/27/2016

Whilst the NDX100 negated its Outside- Down Weekly pattern this past Week; the Benchmark S&P500 remains under the 'influence' of the Indecisive Small BUT potentially significant Reversal Week of 08/19.
The MACD remains on a Sell Signal juxtaposed to the Full Stochastic (incomplete Week) but potentially signaling a Test of the 2193.81 High.

NDX100: Signs of the elusive Medium- Term High?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 09/12/2016

Whilst the Benchmark S&P500 gave it's Sell Signal pre- NFP's; the NDX100 gave both a nuanced Daily Indecisive Sign & then an overt Key Reversal Weekly Chart (Small Caps as well) last week.
Largest 2 Day move since the early 2016 'scare' Jan/ Feb leaves as many Q's as A's post FED commentary that exhibits divergent FOMC Policy views?
Should the overdue Correction play out; Support @ 38%/ 62% retrace of Rally > 4180 resides some distance away from Monday's Close.

NDX100 still the 'lead dog' in the Rally that has finally 'stalled'; A Correction another matter altogether?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 08/23/2016

3 Weeks since our last update as this Rally succumbs to the Norther Summer 'doldrums'; September the likely period for 'what's next'.
Trending Indicator (ADX: Black Line) now in de- trend mode & below the DMI+ (Rally) fully reflecting the 'stalling' market.
That said & definitely NO Sign in this particular Index that a High of significance has been witnessed.
The S&P500 did however score the most marginal of Reversals this past Week; whether it matters time will tell.

NDX100: Momentum Rally continues apace post- BREXIT 'CHAOS'.......

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 07/29/2016

Whilst this Rally WILL exhaust itself like every other in market history; the lack of conviction/ belief by many may yet allow for further gains that simply 'shock' those that 'fell for' the IMF/ BoE "Chaos" prognostications immediately post the BREXIT Vote.
NOT until a Clear Sign is witnessed should we 'doubt' this Rally; as the DMI/ ADX Indicator 'trumps' all others including the RSI.
Caveats are existent; the Small Caps 'idling' sideways for 13 days; the Bio- Techs setting the pace BUT below retrace levels that keep it in a Bear Market Rally categorisation for now. Patience.

BREXIT: Much to do about 'nothing' as BoE's Carney's comments create 'carnage'?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 07/06/2016

For all the bluster & near 'treasonous' comments from the Bank of England's Carney in talking markets into a 'panic' of sorts; the Global Benchmark S&P500 is standing 'firm' & mustering the Technical 'strength' to launch an assault upon not only 2120 but also the 2134 Record High?

If it's all about OIL; then another Reversal a Sign pre- BREXIT for Risk Assets?

WTI Daily Chart @ Close 06/22/2016

Previous Daily Reversal (Outside- Down Day) witnessed 2 Weeks back signalled a Correction of sorts....to $46.40.
Yesterday's Reversal may well  do the same ahead of the BREXIT Decision later today.
If so; then the 38.2% retrace from $35.24 looms @ $45.40 with the coincident 61.8% of such & larger retrace (0.382 from the $26.05 Low) @ $41.51/ 88 respectively.
Either one of the 3 retrace Levels keeps the Bull Market in Crude 'flowing' for the moment.
Let's see how this plays out.

NDX100 Gap @ 4523 Closed amid a 'flurry' of Daily REVERSALS elsewhere.........

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 05/31/2016

Gap #1 CLOSED @ 4523 with the January GAP still there for the Closure......BUT First amid a flurry of Daily Reversals in many indices (SPX/ OEX/ NY/ NYA/ DJIA).... ALL posting Outside- Down Days....perhaps a short/ sharp Correction (2- 3%) before the Final Assault (for the NDX100) upon the 4593 Gap that ultimately 'seals the deal'; after which......?

NDX100 in pursuit of the 4593 Gap?

NDX Daily Chart @ Close 05/27/2016

Ability to hold 'the line' amid a 38% retracement of gains from 3888.78 now sees a Rally unfold seemingly intent on Closing both the immediate Gap left Open April 21 @ 4523 post the Reversal witnessed April 19 with an Outside- Down Day.
Beyond that lies the 4593 GAP left Open once 'batting' began January 4 & the ensuing near collapse amid China/ Commodity/ FANG woes.

NDX100: US Equity Market Rally 'pause' in effect; how much more to go?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 05/04/2016

Raft of Resistance basis the Benchmark S&P500 @ 2080/ 2116/ 2134 finally 'got their man' with a High @ 2110 & then this reversal of sorts.
Basis the NDX100; 38% of gains from the February Lows now surrendered.
What appeared to be an inevitable Buy Cross on the much followed 50/200day SMAs could well turn 'sour' on matters & 'compress' with this Index failing to muster a Weekly Close back above (4410).
Let's see.

S&P500 into the Resistance Zone with potential Signs for a Reversal......OR not.

S&P500 Weekly Chart @ Close 04/15/2016

3 Weeks since the Outside- Down Day that heralded only a pause in the Rally; that said and we are not even 2% higher since.
Raft of overhead Resistances now 'front & centre' between 2104/ 2116 & the Record 2134 Highs.
Rare Tom deMark Set- Up in play (see chart notes) potentially the Signal that aggressive types should have their 'pencils' sharpened this Week.

S&P500: Finally a Sign with an Outside- Down Day scored?

S&P500: Daily Chart @ Close 03/22/2016

The Counter- Rally since the 1810 Lows scores an Outside- Down Day; one that heralds the first Test of the veracity of this Rally.
If so; then Support @ 1962 the 1st 'Port of Call' as Q1 2016 ends amid the confusion & gathering uncertain global outlook in more than just economies?

NDX100 into the Selling Zone........Or not?

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 03/07/2016

4th Day of Indecision as the Rally (Counter OR otherwise) falters in the Zone between the 50 & 200 Day SMAs; the 61.8% retrace @ 4414 awaits with THAT Gap just below 4600 'beckoning' for the unwary Bears/ Shorts who may well yet feel similar pain to the Longs who suffered amid the January 'event'.

Equity Counter- Rally still shy the real testing levels......NDX100

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close Friday 02/26/2016

Sell Signal on the 50/200day SMA together with Declining Volume amid the Counter- Rally juxtaposed against the pesky GAP @ just below 4600 that WILL be closed @ some point in time.
That said & there is the Gap left behind in this advance @ just above 4000.....so there's our Range: 4000 - 4600?

CRUDE'S Outside- Up Day negated; WTI en- route to $20 now?

WTI Daily Chart @ Close 02/10/2016

Outside- Up Day NEGATED as Storage dwindles & Peak Oil morphs into Peak Storage?
Projections (Emphasis: Projections) can allow for Crude to FALL to $20 handles.
That happens & Risk Assets will most likely be 'along' for the 'ride'.....Lower.

If it's ALL about Crude; then an Outside- Up Day is worth noting?

WTI Daily Chart @ Close 02/03/2016

Picture's worth a 1000 Words?
Outside- Up Day amid the frustration in Risk Markets & Management ....perhaps a Weekly Close ABOVE $35bbl coincident with a 'turn' in the US$.....and Risk comes back with a vengeance ....Short- Term at least?

NDX100: Outside- Down Day does NOT augur well for the Counter- Rally....

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 01/25/2016

Post last Wednesday's 'constructive' Daily Chart & apparent 'exhaustion' of Selling Risk Assets; today's Reversal NOT in the 'script' as CRUDE Oil turns sharply negative (it too scoring a Huge Outside Down Daily Chart pattern).
Another Test of the recent Equity Lows likely as the frustration continues so early into a New Year and we ALL become Oil Traders one way or the other?

NDX100 Gap @ 4267 closed Friday; where to now.......3678?

NDX100 Weekly Chart @ Close 01/08/2016

Given the start to the Year & a near Record # of 'mulligan' markets together with the speed with which markets are moving; it's worth mentioning that pesky GAP from way back in mid- 2014 @ 3678......do we Fill it on this 'descent' or Fill the one above @ 4592.88 before the Main Show unfolds???
Ground Zero remains the 9:15am CNY Fix Monday; perhaps a Plaza Accord arrangement with some CB EURO & JPY Buying amid a serious USDCNY 'fix' beginning with a 7 would 'antacid' markets?

NDX100: "4267 Gap 'beckons' (S&P500 Gap @ 1951); that's where we're going in January."

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 01/04/2016

Whilst we Closed out our Tactical Short waaaay too early; for the sake of transparency THE WEEKLY (01/01/2016) made absolutely clear what our View was/ is (see post title).
That said & Monday's Trade has left an Indecisive (yes; indecision from the Open/ Close even with 2% losses) Daily Chart Pattern.
The LARGE Gap left behind from Thursday allows for some R&R higher before the assault upon 4267 resumes.
Matters Sino Job #1 of course & 'Ground Zero', how/ if/ when they re- open Stocks so so important now..... may we live in interesting times?

NDX100: TACTICAL Short Closed (residual 1/2) OUT @ 4622.

NDX100 Daily Intra- Day Chart 12/31/2015

After the 1st half of our Tactical Short (4686) was Closed @ 4571; 2nd half takes an 'Exit' @ 4622 upon closure of the GAP left behind in Santa's sharp & seasonal Rally (one that we had doubts about).
All 'Square' again into 2016 awaiting a Signal anew to initiate another Trade.
Happy New Year!