Should CRUDE 'spill'.......$72/ $73 Medium- Term Target.

$WTIC Weekly Chart @ Close 10/30/2013

Filed under: 'What if?'
Should the $95.50/ 96.00 ledge fail; follow thru lower into the Major Support circa $90.60 looms large.
THAT fails & it could be as simple as A/B/C........$115/ 75 = $112/ 72?
(Round #'s keeping it simple for us all.)

McClellan Oscillator joins the fray.......lower

NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator @ Close 10/30/2103

The Oscillator now back below Zero; the recent Highs in the 'high beta' NDX100/ NASDAQ......NEVER confirmed by the Oscillator & as such the warning that this rally was becoming 'terminal'.
As always; follow through lower is the 'proof' that the warning has been correct.

Patience rewarded? Outside Down Day for the broad market.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close 10/30/2103

The somewhat early; yet likely to be prescient warning 6 trading days ago (see earlier posts) now coming into play as the indices give up their gains & come back to the 'scene of the crime'.
Another 6 months of QE NOT quite the antidote to a slowing global economy & continuing unease over all things Sino; a gathering spy scandal in DC & logistic #'s that belie the 'recovery' thesis?
Let's see what happens next.

A pause only so far; patience always worth the wait.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Daily Chart @ Close 10/28/13

Whilst the lack of follow through lower has yet to be witnessed & other big cap indices have 'marched on' higher (albeit marginally); the Russell 2000 et al have 'stalled'.
Whether this stall succumbs to technical indications in that a correction of sorts is due; only time will tell.
Patience never goes out of fashion; yet is so rarely 'displayed'?

Follow up....follow through lower'?.............not yet

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/23/2013

Failure to follow through immediately lower leaves the 'door open' for a retest of the Highs scored Tuesday (across a # of indices).
The strong gains in the Transport Index @ +0.69% belies weakness elsewhere; perhaps a reaction to the gathering weakness in Crude $'s?
The NDX does have form in providing rather random Daily Chart patterns; the mid- July choppy & short- term 'adjustment' symptomatic of such & worthy of note for today's analysis.

NDX100 'confirms' the Small Caps 'hesitation': Outside Down Day

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/22/2013

An Outside Down day for the High Beta NDX100 would appear to be confirmation enough on the Small Caps 'Indecision' (see below)?
We think so; you?
And if so; then a pullback to its 50day SMA @ 3185 implies a 5% correction of its own.
Caveat Emptor now for the unsuspecting.

Small Caps 'Indecision' a RED Flag................

Small Cap Daily Chart @ Close 10/22/2013

An Indecisive Daily Chart by the leadership index should be warning enough to the Longs that perhaps another pause is upon us?
If so; then a neat 5% pullback to the Trend- Line & coincident 50day SMA @ 600 is to be expected.

NDX scores another New High......Divergences continue

NDX100 Daily Chart @ Close 10/15/2013

Both the NDX100 & Small Caps ($SML) are the indices to monitor.
New High for the HIGH BETA NDX100; the Negative Divergences evident on the Daily Chart & many a Stochastic Study the principal concern for those that 'care'.
Should we?

Small Caps lead the way still.................

$SML (S&P600) Daily Chart @ Close 10/14/2013

The correction back to the 50day SMA reversed 'on cue' and continues its 'leadership' role in NOT participating in the more meaningful pullbacks witnessed in the benchmark indices (S&P500/ DJIA/ DJT).
When the Small Caps give us the 'sign'; then we'll be more confident of a deeper correction of gains, scored even in lieu of constructive debate in DC over budgets & Obamacare.

Small Caps back to the 50day SMA

$SML Daily Chart @ Close 10/09/13

Small Caps 'migrate' back to the 50day Simple Moving Average (SMA); where we go from here the BIG Q?
A Daily Close below this & the 200day SMA remains a ways away @ 846...some 8% lower from today's close.

S&P Small Caps: "What correction!?"

S&P600 (Small Caps) Daily Chart @ Close 10/01/13

Whilst the Benchmark S&P500, together with the Dow Industrials & Transports have been in 'corrective' mode; the $SML & NASDAQ100 for that matter, have both surged to new highs.
Until a Clear Sign of a reversal is witnessed across ALL Indices; suggestions that a meaningful high is in place remains preemptive.

DOW INDUSTRIALS Lower after the re-balancing........

DJIA Weekly @ Close 09/30/2013

Coincident with Negative Divergences in other Indices & McClellan Oscillator confirmation; the DOW is in correction mode. The Small Caps however; managed a marginal new high last week and also scoring a marginal gain come Monday!