Sunday, September 22, 2013

Dow Jones 'rebalancing' a sign of the times?

DJIA @ Close Friday 09/20/2013
In time to celebrate the 'new & old' changes to the DJIA; persistent Divergences (Negative) may well take hold on the Industrials.
If so; then a simple 38% retrace of the gains from late 2011 could well be the result.
That 'result' would witness a move back to the 2012 October High @ 13,661 & 38% of the gains since 2011...with the risk being a larger pullback to 12,471 (62%); the point @ which this potentially last leg of the 2 year old rally started from.
QE 'that'?

Monday, September 16, 2013

US $ Index 'lower'......"the 'catalyst' still a mystery".......NO MORE

USD INDEX @ Close 09/13/2013
Daily Chart for the US Dollar Index: What with Lawrence Summers 'withdrawal' from the selection process for Chair of the FED (WSJ nailed this story with report that 'Confirmation' was NOT going to happen for Larry); his 'opponent in Janet Yellen is now the 'mystery' solved reason for a GAP open lower Monday morning as her 2007 prescient 'Dovish' prognostications dominate.
As per THE WEEKLY: our 79/80 Target now looks likely.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

BALTIC FREIGHT INDEX 'surges' as TEU's 'collapse'........

TEU $'S as at Friday 13th September 2013
For all the talk about higher stock prices in China & 'surging' Baltic Freight Rates (as production surges); the reality may be more complex & less ebullient that published?
Rates are DOWN 32.6% in the last 6 weeks on the Shanghai- Med Routes; for Northern Europe Rates have fallen by 35.6% & now some 20.7% lower year-on-year.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

So much for the 'Indecision'...................Higher.

NYSE Daily Close @ 09/09/2013
The Indecisive Day Friday on NFP #'s release continues the 'pattern' of potentially misleading/ false/ useless Chart Patterns when the Payrolls Data is released.
Why?
Matters not; more importantly the ascent above the 50day SMA for many indices now suggests a run back to the May/ August twin peaks.
After that?

Sunday, September 8, 2013

S&P500 @ the 50day SMA; Indecision abounds?

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 09/06/2013
The true intent of global equities remains a mystery as QE 'tapering' gathers steam with 10yr US Note Yields closing out the week above the critical 2.85% level.
A resumption of losses in equities after Friday's wide ranging Indecisive Day would be of no surprise & could turn ugly quite quickly.
That said; the EM 'space' seems oblivious as Brazil scoots 7.48% higher on the week?

Sunday, September 1, 2013

Dr Copper the 'canary in the coal mine'?

COPPER Weekly Chart @ Close 08/30/2013
Not only an OUTSIDE DOWN DAY mid- week; Copper puts in the same on a WEEKLY basis.
With many cross- currents buffeting global markets; Copper usually serves as the one that rarely 'lies'.
That said; then are the $2.99 lows @ risk with implications for ALL markets & the Global Economic Outlook?