S&P500 holds the 38% retrace then back to the 50day SMA.......

S&P500 Dail Close @ 06/27/2013

Simple 38% retrace of gains since Nov. 2012 leaves the Benchmark in a 'strong' position to mount another 'assault' on the Highs @ 1687.
The 50day SMA has halted THAT Advance thus far; a 50% retracement of the Losses to boot!
If 1687 proves to be a Medium- Term High; the process of forming it may take time & frustrate 'all & sundry' before the larger correction unfolds (think: < 1474).
Sentiment #'s have declined back to levels that support a 'closer encounter' with the 1687 High than we have witnessed to date?

S&P500: Where to now?

S&P500: Weekly Chart @ Close 06/21/2013

Whilst a Short- term 'bounce'/ respite could be in order; given Friday's High Volume (not shown) minor gain, the bigger picture now is biased for a meaningful retracement of the gains from 1074 back in 2011.
They are:
38% = 1454
50% = 1382
62% = 1310.
Time will tell as the QE Exit backs up through the 'Looking Glass' out of 'Wonderland'?

2013's Train Wreck?

Australian ACGB 10yr Note: Close @ 06/21/2013

THE WEEKLY 'elite' know this trade well:
The (100) PUTS on the 5.75% Series July 2022 on a quarterly buying program are now 'making their move'.
A cursory glance @ the 10 year Weekly Chart sees that the 'convergence' zone/ natural level for 10 year Govt. Bonds in OZ is at the 5.50% level.
Let's see if we get there soon as the QE Exit takes ALL before it?

62% retrace on the S&P500 keeps the Correction 'in play'.

S&P500 Daily Chart @ Close 06/20/2013

The benchmark's failure to surmount the 1653 level (61.8%) retrace of the preliminary losses from 1687/ 1598 has kept the Tactical Bearish Trade alive.
Further potential losses now @ 1550 / 1475 should the market 'gods' wish.

DAX: Outside- UP Day Friday says another run @ the Highs.

DAX Daily Chart @ Close 06/07/2013

Whilst the US Indices have not been so pronounced in Signaling a potential run back to the Highs; the German DAX (& CAC40) have both 'said' as much.
S&P500 Resistance @ 1653 (61.8% retrace of the losses from 1687/ 1598) defines how close we 'go' in testing 1687.....or even New Highs to frustrate the recent Put Buying crowd?

NYSE Signal....so far so good...lower.

NYSE Daily Chart @ Close June 5 2013

The Outside Down Day & Weekly Charts for the NYSE have indeed been prescient in their timing.
The NDX100 was along for the ride (in signalling); the benchmark S&P500 failing to give such clarity.
Further short- term weakness is possible; the immediate Support @ the 38% retrace of gains since Nov. 2012 fast approaching.